diff --git a/.changeset/plain-dancers-double.md b/.changeset/plain-dancers-double.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..ab47b8e4c7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.changeset/plain-dancers-double.md
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+---
+'svelte': patch
+---
+
+fix: more conservative assignment_value_stale warnings
diff --git a/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/3-transform/client/visitors/AssignmentExpression.js b/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/3-transform/client/visitors/AssignmentExpression.js
index 731569aaae..0f6a619357 100644
--- a/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/3-transform/client/visitors/AssignmentExpression.js
+++ b/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/3-transform/client/visitors/AssignmentExpression.js
@@ -162,7 +162,10 @@ function build_assignment(operator, left, right, context) {
 	// will be pushed to. we do this by transforming it to something like
 	// `$.assign_nullish(object, 'items', [])`
 	let should_transform =
-		dev && path.at(-1) !== 'ExpressionStatement' && is_non_coercive_operator(operator);
+		dev &&
+		path.at(-1) !== 'ExpressionStatement' &&
+		is_non_coercive_operator(operator) &&
+		!context.state.scope.evaluate(right).is_primitive;
 
 	// special case — ignore `onclick={() => (...)}`
 	if (
diff --git a/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/scope.js b/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/scope.js
index 2a0c76f756..52efd93210 100644
--- a/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/scope.js
+++ b/packages/svelte/src/compiler/phases/scope.js
@@ -228,6 +228,13 @@ class Evaluation {
 	 */
 	is_number = true;
 
+	/**
+	 * True if the value is known to be a primitive
+	 * @readonly
+	 * @type {boolean}
+	 */
+	is_primitive = true;
+
 	/**
 	 * True if the value is known to be a function
 	 * @readonly
@@ -577,6 +584,7 @@ class Evaluation {
 
 			if (value === UNKNOWN) {
 				this.has_unknown = true;
+				this.is_primitive = false;
 			}
 		}
 
diff --git a/packages/svelte/src/internal/client/dev/assign.js b/packages/svelte/src/internal/client/dev/assign.js
index d9ef7497d5..3b48e736b5 100644
--- a/packages/svelte/src/internal/client/dev/assign.js
+++ b/packages/svelte/src/internal/client/dev/assign.js
@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+import { STATE_SYMBOL } from '#client/constants';
 import { sanitize_location } from '../../../utils.js';
 import { untrack } from '../runtime.js';
 import * as w from '../warnings.js';
@@ -10,7 +11,7 @@ import * as w from '../warnings.js';
  * @param {string} location
  */
 function compare(a, b, property, location) {
-	if (a !== b) {
+	if (a !== b && typeof b === 'object' && STATE_SYMBOL in b) {
 		w.assignment_value_stale(property, /** @type {string} */ (sanitize_location(location)));
 	}
 
diff --git a/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/_config.js b/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/_config.js
index 4462f492fa..2ff2634822 100644
--- a/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/_config.js
+++ b/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/_config.js
@@ -6,31 +6,26 @@ export default test({
 		dev: true
 	},
 
-	html: `<button>items: null</button> <div>x</div> <input type="checkbox" value="1"><input type="checkbox" value="2"><input>`,
-
 	test({ assert, target, warnings }) {
-		const btn = target.querySelector('button');
-		ok(btn);
+		const [button1, button2, button3] = target.querySelectorAll('button');
+		ok(button1);
 
-		flushSync(() => btn.click());
-		assert.htmlEqual(
-			target.innerHTML,
-			`<button>items: []</button> <div>x</div> <input type="checkbox" value="1"><input type="checkbox" value="2"><input>`
-		);
+		flushSync(() => button1.click());
+		assert.htmlEqual(button1.innerHTML, `items: []`);
 
-		flushSync(() => btn.click());
-		assert.htmlEqual(
-			target.innerHTML,
-			`<button>items: [0]</button> <div>x</div> <input type="checkbox" value="1"><input type="checkbox" value="2"><input>`
-		);
+		flushSync(() => button1.click());
+		assert.htmlEqual(button1.innerHTML, `items: [0]`);
 
 		const input = target.querySelector('input');
 		ok(input);
 		input.checked = true;
 		flushSync(() => input.dispatchEvent(new Event('change', { bubbles: true })));
 
+		flushSync(() => button2.click());
+		flushSync(() => button3.click());
+
 		assert.deepEqual(warnings, [
-			'Assignment to `items` property (main.svelte:9:24) will evaluate to the right-hand side, not the value of `items` following the assignment. This may result in unexpected behaviour.'
+			'Assignment to `items` property (main.svelte:17:24) will evaluate to the right-hand side, not the value of `items` following the assignment. This may result in unexpected behaviour.'
 		]);
 	}
 });
diff --git a/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/main.svelte b/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/main.svelte
index a79fe873b7..02320a3128 100644
--- a/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/main.svelte
+++ b/packages/svelte/tests/runtime-runes/samples/proxy-coercive-assignment-warning/main.svelte
@@ -1,9 +1,17 @@
  <script>
 	import Test from './Test.svelte';
 
+	let { opacity = 0.5 } = $props();
+
 	let entries = $state([]);
 	let object = $state({ items: null, group: [] });
 	let elementFunBind = $state();
+
+	// should omit $.assign via static analysis
+	const fixed = (node) => node.style.opacity = 0.5;
+
+	// should use $.assign, but it should not warn
+	const unknown = (node) => node.style.opacity = opacity;
 </script>
 
 <button onclick={() => (object.items ??= []).push(object.items.length)}>
@@ -23,3 +31,6 @@
 	<input bind:this={() => {}, (e) => (context.element = e)} />
 {/snippet}
 {@render funBind({ set element(e) { elementFunBind = e } })}
+
+<button onclick={(e) => (fixed(e.currentTarget))}>change opacity (fixed)</button>
+<button onclick={(e) => (unknown(e.currentTarget))}>change opacity (unknown)</button>