"To see how infectuous is the disease, we look at the **basic repoduction number** $R_0$, which indicated the number of people that an infected person would further infect. When $R_0$ is more than 1, the epidemic is likely to spread.\r\n",
"To see how infectuous is the disease, we look at the **basic reproduction number** $R_0$, which indicated the number of people that an infected person would further infect. When $R_0$ is more than 1, the epidemic is likely to spread.\r\n",
"\r\n",
"$R_0$ is a property of the disease itself, and does not take into account some protective measures that people may take to slow down the pandemic. During the pandemic progression, we can estimate the reproduction number $R_t$ at any given time $t$. It has been shown that this number can be roughly estimated by taking a window of 8 days, and computing $$R_t=\\frac{I_{t-7}+I_{t-6}+I_{t-5}+I_{t-4}}{I_{t-3}+I_{t-2}+I_{t-1}+I_t}$$\r\n",
"where $I_t$ is the number of newly infected individuals on day $t$.\r\n",