diff --git a/机器学习竞赛实战_优胜解决方案/智慧城市-道路通行时间预测/.ipynb_checkpoints/建模预测-checkpoint.ipynb b/机器学习竞赛实战_优胜解决方案/智慧城市-道路通行时间预测/.ipynb_checkpoints/建模预测-checkpoint.ipynb
index dc38cc5..79189bf 100644
--- a/机器学习竞赛实战_优胜解决方案/智慧城市-道路通行时间预测/.ipynb_checkpoints/建模预测-checkpoint.ipynb
+++ b/机器学习竞赛实战_优胜解决方案/智慧城市-道路通行时间预测/.ipynb_checkpoints/建模预测-checkpoint.ipynb
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
  "cells": [
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 17,
+   "execution_count": 1,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@
    "source": [
     "import pandas as pd\n",
     "import numpy as np\n",
+    "import os\n",
     "from scipy.interpolate import UnivariateSpline\n",
     "from sklearn import linear_model\n",
     "import xgboost as xgb\n",
@@ -315,7 +316,7 @@
    ],
    "source": [
     "# 读取处理好的特征数据\n",
-    "df = pd.read_csv('trainning.txt', delimiter=';',parse_dates=['time_interval_begin'],dtype={'link_ID':object})\n",
+    "df = pd.read_csv('data/trainning.txt', delimiter=';',parse_dates=['time_interval_begin'],dtype={'link_ID':object})\n",
     "df.head()"
    ]
   },
@@ -423,7 +424,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 25,
+   "execution_count": 10,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -450,9 +451,6 @@
     "                batch = np.array(bucket[time_series], dtype=float)\n",
     "                y = batch[:,-1]\n",
     "                batch = np.delete(batch, -1, axis=1)\n",
-    "                print(\"====================================\")\n",
-    "                print(batch.shape, last.shape, type(time_series))\n",
-    "                print(\"====================================\")\n",
     "                batch = np.concatenate((batch, last), axis=1)\n",
     "                y_pre = regressor.predict(batch)\n",
     "                last = np.delete(last, 0, axis=1)\n",
@@ -640,396 +638,15 @@
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "[16:02:58] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
+      "[22:07:01] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
       "99 0.231729 0.09787323564628972\n",
-      "[16:08:54] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9900, 23) (9900, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
+      "[22:12:48] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
       "99 0.211948 0.22588986922596394\n",
-      "[16:14:56] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n"
-     ]
-    },
-    {
-     "name": "stdout",
-     "output_type": "stream",
-     "text": [
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
+      "[22:18:32] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
       "99 0.207832 0.269828138777363\n",
-      "[16:21:05] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9504, 23) (9504, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
+      "[22:24:17] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
       "99 0.205743 0.27878690843594917\n",
-      "[16:27:05] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "====================================\n",
-      "(9108, 23) (9108, 5) <class 'float'>\n",
-      "====================================\n",
+      "[22:29:46] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
       "99 0.206546 0.2825731100341743\n",
       "{'colsample_bytree': 0.6, 'gamma': 0, 'learning_rate': 0.05, 'max_depth': 7, 'min_child_weight': 1, 'n_estimators': '[99, 99, 99, 99, 99]', 'reg_alpha': 2, 'subsample': 0.6, 'loss_std': 0.06956988861011186, 'loss': '[0.09787323564628972, 0.22588986922596394, 0.269828138777363, 0.27878690843594917, 0.2825731100341743]', 'mean_loss': 0.23099025242394805, 'best_score': '[0.231729, 0.211948, 0.207832, 0.205743, 0.206546]'}\n",
       "best with:{'colsample_bytree': 0.6, 'gamma': 0, 'learning_rate': 0.05, 'max_depth': 7, 'min_child_weight': 1, 'n_estimators': '[99, 99, 99, 99, 99]', 'reg_alpha': 2, 'subsample': 0.6, 'loss_std': 0.06956988861011186, 'loss': '[0.09787323564628972, 0.22588986922596394, 0.269828138777363, 0.27878690843594917, 0.2825731100341743]', 'mean_loss': 0.23099025242394805, 'best_score': '[0.231729, 0.211948, 0.207832, 0.205743, 0.206546]'}\n"
@@ -1087,8 +704,16 @@
     "                            reg_alpha=params['reg_alpha'])\n",
     "    regressor.fit(X_train,y_train,verbose=True,early_stopping_rounds=10,\n",
     "                  eval_metric=mape_ln,eval_set=eval_set)\n",
+    "    try:\n",
+    "        os.mkdir(\"model/\")  # 尝试创建相对目录，有则跳过\n",
+    "    except:\n",
+    "        pass\n",
     "    joblib.dump(regressor, 'model/xgbr.pkl')\n",
     "    print(regressor)\n",
+    "    try:\n",
+    "        os.mkdir(\"submission/\")  # 尝试创建相对目录，有则跳过\n",
+    "    except:\n",
+    "        pass\n",
     "    submission(train_feature, regressor,df, \n",
     "               'submission/xgbrl.txt','submission/xgbr2.txt',\n",
     "              'submission/xgbr3.txt','submission/xgbr4.txt')"
@@ -1096,14 +721,14 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 26,
+   "execution_count": 16,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "[17:47:53] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
+      "[22:35:34] WARNING: C:/Jenkins/workspace/xgboost-win64_release_0.90/src/objective/regression_obj.cu:152: reg:linear is now deprecated in favor of reg:squarederror.\n",
       "[0]\tvalidation_0-rmse:2.02747\tvalidation_0-mape:0.867894\n",
       "Multiple eval metrics have been passed: 'validation_0-mape' will be used for early stopping.\n",
       "\n",