diff --git a/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/assets/20201128203033.png b/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/assets/20201128203033.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c64c8f4 Binary files /dev/null and b/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/assets/20201128203033.png differ diff --git a/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/assets/20201128203246.png b/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/assets/20201128203246.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e86393e Binary files /dev/null and b/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/assets/20201128203246.png differ diff --git a/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/贝叶斯建模.ipynb b/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/贝叶斯建模.ipynb index eb153e1..060b812 100644 --- a/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/贝叶斯建模.ipynb +++ b/notebook_必备数学基础/贝叶斯分析/贝叶斯建模.ipynb @@ -250,6 +250,97 @@ "_ = plt.legend(['$lambda$ = %s' % mu])" ] }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ + "上述泊松分布模型和 μ 的估计表明，观测小于10 或大于 30 的可能性很小，绝大多数的概率分布在 10 和 30 之间。但是，这不能反映我们观测到的介于 0 到 60 之间的数据。" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ + "#### 贝叶斯方法估计μ\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ + "上述可解读如下（从下到上）：\n", + "