From 0045dee9be1b4666614e96e1364ec6bdd41d3cb1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: benjas <909336740@qq.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 2020 21:11:28 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?Create=20=E6=A8=A1=E5=9E=8B=E8=A7=A3=E9=87=8A.i?=
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diff --git a/机器学习竞赛实战_优胜解决方案/特征工程建模/模型解释.ipynb b/机器学习竞赛实战_优胜解决方案/特征工程建模/模型解释.ipynb
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@@ -0,0 +1,845 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Permutation Importance"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 2,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "import numpy as np\n",
+    "import pandas as pd\n",
+    "from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n",
+    "from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 3,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>Date</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Team</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Opponent</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Goal Scored</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Ball Possession %</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Attempts</th>\n",
+       "      <th>On-Target</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Off-Target</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Blocked</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Corners</th>\n",
+       "      <th>...</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Yellow Card</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Yellow &amp; Red</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Red</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Man of the Match</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1st Goal</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Round</th>\n",
+       "      <th>PSO</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Goals in PSO</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Own goals</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Own goal Time</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>14-06-2018</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Russia</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Saudi Arabia</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>40</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>...</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Group Stage</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>14-06-2018</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Saudi Arabia</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Russia</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>60</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>...</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Group Stage</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>15-06-2018</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Egypt</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Uruguay</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>43</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>...</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Group Stage</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>15-06-2018</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Uruguay</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Egypt</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>57</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>...</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
+       "      <td>89.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Group Stage</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>15-06-2018</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Morocco</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Iran</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>64</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>...</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "      <td>Group Stage</td>\n",
+       "      <td>No</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>90.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "<p>5 rows × 27 columns</p>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "         Date          Team      Opponent  Goal Scored  Ball Possession %  \\\n",
+       "0  14-06-2018        Russia  Saudi Arabia            5                 40   \n",
+       "1  14-06-2018  Saudi Arabia        Russia            0                 60   \n",
+       "2  15-06-2018         Egypt       Uruguay            0                 43   \n",
+       "3  15-06-2018       Uruguay         Egypt            1                 57   \n",
+       "4  15-06-2018       Morocco          Iran            0                 64   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "   Attempts  On-Target  Off-Target  Blocked  Corners  ...  Yellow Card  \\\n",
+       "0        13          7           3        3        6  ...            0   \n",
+       "1         6          0           3        3        2  ...            0   \n",
+       "2         8          3           3        2        0  ...            2   \n",
+       "3        14          4           6        4        5  ...            0   \n",
+       "4        13          3           6        4        5  ...            1   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "   Yellow & Red  Red  Man of the Match  1st Goal        Round  PSO  \\\n",
+       "0             0    0               Yes      12.0  Group Stage   No   \n",
+       "1             0    0                No       NaN  Group Stage   No   \n",
+       "2             0    0                No       NaN  Group Stage   No   \n",
+       "3             0    0               Yes      89.0  Group Stage   No   \n",
+       "4             0    0                No       NaN  Group Stage   No   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "   Goals in PSO  Own goals  Own goal Time  \n",
+       "0             0        NaN            NaN  \n",
+       "1             0        NaN            NaN  \n",
+       "2             0        NaN            NaN  \n",
+       "3             0        NaN            NaN  \n",
+       "4             0        1.0           90.0  \n",
+       "\n",
+       "[5 rows x 27 columns]"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 3,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "data = pd.read_csv('data/FIFA 2018 Statistics.csv')  # 足球赛事数据集\n",
+    "data.head()"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "怎么知道哪些特征影响多大\n",
+    "\n",
+    "破坏特征：比如把Goal Scored上下的顺序打乱，其它不变，然后比较破坏前和后的区别\n",
+    "\n",
+    "如果前 ≈ 后，说明这个特征对结果没影响\n",
+    "如果后 ＜ 前，说明这个特征对结果影响起正作用\n",
+    "如果后 ＞ 前，说明这个特征对结果影响起负作用（一般不会出现）"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 4,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "0     True\n",
+       "1    False\n",
+       "2    False\n",
+       "3     True\n",
+       "4    False\n",
+       "Name: Man of the Match, dtype: bool"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 4,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "y = (data['Man of the Match'] == 'Yes')  # 转换标签\n",
+    "y[:5]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 5,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>Goal Scored</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Ball Possession %</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Attempts</th>\n",
+       "      <th>On-Target</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Off-Target</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Blocked</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Corners</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Offsides</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Free Kicks</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Saves</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Pass Accuracy %</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Passes</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Distance Covered (Kms)</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Fouls Committed</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Yellow Card</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Yellow &amp; Red</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Red</th>\n",
+       "      <th>Goals in PSO</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>40</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>78</td>\n",
+       "      <td>306</td>\n",
+       "      <td>118</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>60</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>86</td>\n",
+       "      <td>511</td>\n",
+       "      <td>105</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>43</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>78</td>\n",
+       "      <td>395</td>\n",
+       "      <td>112</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>57</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>86</td>\n",
+       "      <td>589</td>\n",
+       "      <td>111</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>64</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>86</td>\n",
+       "      <td>433</td>\n",
+       "      <td>101</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "   Goal Scored  Ball Possession %  Attempts  On-Target  Off-Target  Blocked  \\\n",
+       "0            5                 40        13          7           3        3   \n",
+       "1            0                 60         6          0           3        3   \n",
+       "2            0                 43         8          3           3        2   \n",
+       "3            1                 57        14          4           6        4   \n",
+       "4            0                 64        13          3           6        4   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "   Corners  Offsides  Free Kicks  Saves  Pass Accuracy %  Passes  \\\n",
+       "0        6         3          11      0               78     306   \n",
+       "1        2         1          25      2               86     511   \n",
+       "2        0         1           7      3               78     395   \n",
+       "3        5         1          13      3               86     589   \n",
+       "4        5         0          14      2               86     433   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "   Distance Covered (Kms)  Fouls Committed  Yellow Card  Yellow & Red  Red  \\\n",
+       "0                     118               22            0             0    0   \n",
+       "1                     105               10            0             0    0   \n",
+       "2                     112               12            2             0    0   \n",
+       "3                     111                6            0             0    0   \n",
+       "4                     101               22            1             0    0   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "   Goals in PSO  \n",
+       "0             0  \n",
+       "1             0  \n",
+       "2             0  \n",
+       "3             0  \n",
+       "4             0  "
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 5,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "feature_names = [i for i in data.columns if data[i].dtype in [np.int64]]\n",
+    "X = data[feature_names]\n",
+    "X.head()"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 7,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "name": "stderr",
+     "output_type": "stream",
+     "text": [
+      "D:\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\sklearn\\ensemble\\forest.py:245: FutureWarning: The default value of n_estimators will change from 10 in version 0.20 to 100 in 0.22.\n",
+      "  \"10 in version 0.20 to 100 in 0.22.\", FutureWarning)\n"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "train_X, val_X,train_y,val_y = train_test_split(X, y,random_state=1)\n",
+    "my_model = RandomForestClassifier(random_state=0).fit(train_X,train_y)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 15,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "\n",
+       "    <style>\n",
+       "    table.eli5-weights tr:hover {\n",
+       "        filter: brightness(85%);\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "\n",
+       "\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <table class=\"eli5-weights eli5-feature-importances\" style=\"border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-top: 0em; table-layout: auto;\">\n",
+       "    <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"border: none;\">\n",
+       "        <th style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">Weight</th>\n",
+       "        <th style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">Feature</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    </thead>\n",
+       "    <tbody>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 80.00%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0750\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.1159\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Goal Scored\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 82.40%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0625\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0791\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Corners\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 86.29%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0437\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0500\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Distance Covered (Kms)\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 87.69%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0375\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0729\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                On-Target\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 87.69%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0375\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0468\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Free Kicks\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 92.42%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0187\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0306\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Blocked\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 94.29%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0125\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0750\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Pass Accuracy %\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 94.29%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0125\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0500\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Yellow Card\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 96.49%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0063\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0468\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Saves\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 96.49%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0063\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0250\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Offsides\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(120, 100.00%, 96.49%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0063\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.1741\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Off-Target\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(0, 100.00%, 100.00%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0.0000\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.1046\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Passes\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(0, 100.00%, 100.00%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0000\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Red\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(0, 100.00%, 100.00%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0000\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Yellow &amp; Red\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(0, 100.00%, 100.00%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                0\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0000\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Goals in PSO\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(0, 100.00%, 89.16%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                -0.0312\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0884\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Fouls Committed\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(0, 100.00%, 87.69%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                -0.0375\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0919\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Attempts\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "        <tr style=\"background-color: hsl(0, 100.00%, 84.94%); border: none;\">\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 1em 0 0.5em; text-align: right; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                -0.0500\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "                    &plusmn; 0.0500\n",
+       "                \n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "            <td style=\"padding: 0 0.5em 0 0.5em; text-align: left; border: none;\">\n",
+       "                Ball Possession %\n",
+       "            </td>\n",
+       "        </tr>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "    \n",
+       "    </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    \n",
+       "\n",
+       "\n",
+       "\n"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 15,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "import eli5 # pip install eli5\n",
+    "from eli5.sklearn import PermutationImportance\n",
+    "\n",
+    "perm = PermutationImportance(my_model,random_state=1).fit(val_X, val_y)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "eli5.show_weights(perm, feature_names=val_X.columns.tolist())"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Partial Dependence Plots\n",
+    "\n",
+    "特征重要性展示了每个特征发挥的作用情况，partial dependence plots 可以展示一个特征怎么影响预测结果\n",
+    "\n",
+    "模型建立完成后进行使用，概述如下："
+   ]
+  }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+  "kernelspec": {
+   "display_name": "Python 3",
+   "language": "python",
+   "name": "python3"
+  },
+  "language_info": {
+   "codemirror_mode": {
+    "name": "ipython",
+    "version": 3
+   },
+   "file_extension": ".py",
+   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+   "name": "python",
+   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+   "version": "3.7.3"
+  }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}